Does money buy votes in congress outline the relationship between Research Paper

Does money buy votes in congress outline the relationship between campaign contributions and voting in congress - Research Paper Example Special interest contributions can flow to politicians who intrinsically value the same policy outcomes, but the contributions may have insignificant political behaviour once a politician is elected in office. One cornerstone of the argument presented in the various studies is the notion that campaign contributions are essentially concerned with affecting election outcomes and that donations are for the most part not meant to buy votes. However, donations are used by various groups in trying to influence ideological positions closer to congress regarding the ideal perception for the interest group (Bronars & Lott, 1995). According to Wawro (2001), efforts to reform campaign finance laws result from the belief that campaign contributions have pernicious effect on politician behaviour with a recent survey showing that 53% of individual believed campaign contributions influence policies of elected officials. ... Therefore, PAC (Political Action Committees) contribute to members of the congress in a way likely for the politicians to vote the way PACs favour even without contributions. PAC donation to friendly members may be construed as cause for the members to vote in a certain way when in fact the member would have voted the same way without the donation. The extensive research on the issues has not produced consistent results that indicate that campaign contributions influence congress members’ voting behaviour (Wawro, 2001). Despite the common knowledge that campaign contributions of interest groups have far less influence that commonly thought; systematic examination of literature reveals various studies that establish connection between monetary donations and votes. Findings from various studies indicate several significant qualifications to the common knowledge that monetary donations do in fact sway how elected representatives vote. The findings are however subject to variation s in model specification because there is less significant link in certain research model specifications such results are nevertheless common in better models. Clearly, monetary donations are linked with voting that favour the donor’s interests; nevertheless, any attempt to conclude autonomous sway on legislators has to fully account for the complexities of the relationships involved. That of great importance is the propensity for PACs to give money to affiliates who are disposed to favour their position; for instance, liberal groups back their own associates who come from liberal constituencies resulting in them voting generously while the opposite applies to conservatives (Roscoe & Jenkins, 2005; US Congress votes on trade, 2011). The pattern suggest that it is the

Final exam( to answer question) Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Final exam( to answer question) - Essay Example For example, students need to be given time, not as a constraint, but as a gift in a supportive place where they can explore what they want with the assistance of the teacher. 2. Discuss what you take to be the relevance of Plato’s â€Å"Allegory of the Cave† to our understanding of freedom. In the allegory of the cave, Socrates describes a group of prisoners chained to the walls watching shadows of people walking behind them and making them to be whatever they want them to be. They are not aware of anything else except what they think is their reality. One day one of the prisoners is released and he realizes what he thought was reality was just his own mind ideas which they were made to believe in (Plato). This story is relevant to our understanding of freedom in current society. When we see too much of something we believe that is the reality when it is really not. We believe in what we see and we are being controlled by the government, media and politicians and we th ink what they tell us is true because we don’t know the truth. At times, the caves we are in are controlled by our parents (Plato). They have the power to control where we hang out, what to watch on TV and even what time to go to bed. 3. Discuss the relevance of the Genesis creation story (the first three chapters only) to our understanding of freedom We as humans, too often long to be free of restrictions and limits, free to choose our own way with no consequences. We simply do not like boundaries. The first couples (Adam and eve) were lured by the promise of absolute freedom, as such; they would have no boundaries except those of their own making. The promise was empty and false, a product of human selfishness and a destructive desire for independence and autonomy. We learn still more about ourselves. We all want absolute freedom without restrictions For instance, a child is concerned with nothing else than having its immediate needs met. 4. Explain how the theme of fear fu nctions in J.M. Coetzee’s allegorical novel Waiting for the Barbarians The imprisonment of the barbarians indicates a sense of colonization and discrimination. This renders them to live a worthless life and always full of fear. The example from the story, of a powerful barbarian, exemplifies a scenario where a position of authority cannot deliver from the bondage of slavery. Coetzee’s allegory of empire represents an empire full of poor use and delegation of power (McCarthy 8). Power is useful when it is used to lead and direct people to do the right things in the right way. Power is misused when people get mistreated and they suffer, yet others enjoy power. The scenario of power from barbarian point of view demonstrates how those ruling, although with all the ability to rule itself, can still guide a colonized society, negatively. 5. Explain George Orwell’s argument about the uses and abuses of language in his essay â€Å"Politics and the English Language.â₠¬  Be sure to note Orwell’s critique of political language, what he thinks the consequences of poor language are, and his

Authentic Counselor Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Authentic Counselor - Coursework Example Such counselors require certain qualities such as having a good sense of who they are, what they are dealing with and be aware of their shortcomings and care about the needs of their clients. There are characteristics in authentic counseling, which include honesty and willingness for the participants to accept and admit when they are wrong (Scott, 2012). Other characteristics that are necessary are asking sincere questions, listening actively and emphasizing. An authentic counselor must have an identity, appreciate, and respect him or herself. They must recognize and accept their power and be open-minded to change, feeling alive, having a sense of humor, and making appropriate decisions. Authentic counselors must be able to live in the present, appreciate culture, have an interest in other people’s welfare, and find value in their work, which enables them to create healthy relationships with their clients (American Counseling Association, 2014).. An authentic counselor means someone who is real and honest with his or her clients. This means that something that is real is something that is valuable or rare therefore clients should be able to value their counselors and therefore find worth in their

Problems and flaws in the American Education Essay Example for Free

Problems and flaws in the American Education Essay In this class we have read many articles related to the problems and flaws in the American Education. Many people in the United States believe our educational system is in crisis. In this essay, I will be comparing and contrasting the differences and similarities between two articles. The author of Idiot Nation takes us on a tour of failings of America’s schools. He touches on topics of cultural illiteracy and the relationships between schools and corporations. In another article, the author of In the Basement of the Ivory Tower confirms some of the suspicions about the policies and standards of American higher education. These articles share similarities and differences as well. Professor X, the author of In the Basement of the Ivory Tower, is a part-time instructor of English in a college. The author describes how many of his students need serious work in â€Å"basic skills†. Few of his students can do well in his classes. Other students may never pass, because they cannot write a coherent sentence. The Professor has encountered many students lacking the capacity to succeed in his English classes. Similarly, the author of Idiot Nation, explains how many of the students attending college are ignorant. They have serious problems in learning and knowing facts that they should know for fact. These two articles demonstrate the problems that college students have when it comes down to education. In contrast, Professor X relates to the students and has sympathy towards their problems, but the author of Idiot Nation, does not seem to relate to these students. Michael Moore is aggressive and does not justify the idiocy of the students. Professor X talks about how he wishes to help his students write more intelligent essays. He understands the students’ difficulties in learning and frustrations. Furthermore, he tries to find solutions, such as relating the literacy techniques they will have to study to novels that the students may have already read. As we can see, the United States faces major problems in today’s education. Many attempts have been made to establish and demonstrate these problems to the public. We may be able to read and view these problems in newspapers, advertisements, and book articles. Michael Moore and Professor X are authors of articles which depict and give a better understanding of the issues that are found in education throughout the country. Today many college students face problems because of their lack of intelligence.

Illegal Downloading Essay

Illegal Downloading Essay Illegal download of music can be best defined as use of free sharing programs such as LimeWire, Bit Torrent, Ares and E-mule to share or obtain copyrighted music or music software without due permission from the copyright holder. From the article, we can deduce and comfortably argue that the illegal download of music is indeed harmful and should be banned and discouraged at all cost. For one, illegal download of music denies musicians the right to profits and hence prevent them from earning their living. It also kills their morale when taken to the fact that it degrades and devalues their products i.e. the music files. On the argument that artists make more money from concerts, this needs to be explicitly clarified, because download of music can actually bring an artist more money than concert appearances. Take a scenario for instance where a musician has a hit song all over the globe which is all over the internet and media outlets. This will translate to more demand, and they will get invited to numerous shows and events all over the world. Whereas anyone in any place around the globe can download the particular song or other songs by the artist no matter the time of the day. The artist himself is limited in the number of shows or concerts he or she can attend hence he might end up making more money from this than actual concerts which requires his physical appearance. The value of musical compact discs (CDs) has been viewed by some as ridiculously high, as the article reports. It will be important to understand this vital point that when a consumer really needs and wants a certain product and appreciates its value the price notwithstanding. (Aksomitis, 2007) He or she would most definitely go out of the way to purchase it this is no different when it comes to musical CD sales. If the notion that downloading of music illegally is harmless and does not really cost the artist much should be dispelled and the following will act to disabuse any such thoughts in any potential illegal music downloader. Jupiter research -a UK based research firm published a report in 2009 titled the analysis of the European online music marketing development and assessment of future opportunities. The report came up with a final conclusion that illegal music downloaders were free loaders who had little or no will /ability to pay for music. This coupled with the fact that the United Kingdom trade value of the domestic music sales had fallen to a sobering twenty five per cent in the last decade is a clear indication of the ills of illegal music download. Another study done in Netherlands by a group called TNO/SEO/IVIR in 2009 established a direct link between a drop in music sales and downloading over the internet: ups and downs-economic and cultural effects of file sharing on music, films and games. The bottom line facts and figures all point out illegal music downloading over the internet, as one of the major culprits that has led to decline in revenue and sales in the music industry worldwide. This is because a seemingly harmless action of downloading a music file over the internet has caused a wide destructive ripple effect in the industry affecting more than one individual /musician. There exist many key industry players who are negatively affected by this. The music producer for one, music managers, record label employees, music promoters, disc jockeys (DJ) and other professionals. Who include video producers, dancers, event organizers and other affiliated industry players together with thousands if not millions of employees earning a living from music and music related products. When music CD sales drops due to illegal download of music, publishers naturally feel the pinch from losses incurred. Drop in album sales lead to firing and lying off of employees by record labels and music production houses. (Noah, 2011) The musician at the end of the line is cheated off their rightful earning by the same illegal downloading. It will be of great importance to note that music CDs are on their way to becoming obsolete and outdated. Therefore soft copy downloading is becoming a more and more preferred mode of music and music software Access Avenue by fans worldwide. This means music downloads are in the future going to be perhaps the only way a part from performances and product endorsements that a musician can earn a living and make sales from his/her music. All this is a clear pointer that illegal music download is indeed harmful and musicians therefore should declare an out and out war against these offenders. Who exhibits dishonest, unscrupulous, unethical and selfish practice which amounts to mass theft of intellectual property and copyright infringement not to mention theft. It is important that there exist legal and recognized channels for music downloading where there is a good and reliable system of music downloading. This is because there would be an important source of data whereby an artist can keep tract and do a self-evaluation of his/her music progress. Other key players such as producers and music promoters would also find this handy and useful in keeping tract if their artist progress in development while keeping tabs on sales and marketing data .Ranking and artist valuing can also be easily timelines and tracked down to minute details. The government would also heavily benefit from the same when it comes to the crucial issue of taxation and revenue collection. Where there is a legal and recognized mode of music download, tax deductions and revenue payment can be smoothly and flawlessly carried out which in turn will help the government to be able to protect the musicians and assure them of continued earning from their music. This will in turn lead to high morale in the musician who will continue churning out more quality and standard music for the fans to enjoy. It is however important to take in to consideration the issue of music previews where potential downloads review and sample music before downloading. The article argue that if allowed access to sampling and previewing of music prior to online purchase, the potential customers will not value the illegally downloaded music. Resulting, into temporally use of files then deleting without actually engaging in the actual purchase of the song. There should be such a platform streamlined such as in the case of movie trailers where a sneak preview of the song is availed without unnecessarily exposing much or the whole song to potential buyers. A small part of the song such as the chorus should be coded into the system with an expiry security lock for temporal use. We must keep in psyche that prior to one goes to download a song there must have been motivators and factors that lead to his or her action. (Johnson Broida, 2002) By this, we can take into account music previews and reviews in various contemporary music shows in radio and television programs. Also written music reviews by entertainment writers and critics who are well informed about music of various genres and types they report for therefore the downloader has a pretty good idea what he/she is going to download. Up to that point all will agree that illegal download of music does more harm than good. Therefore should be severely reprimanded and allow for musicians effort to be duly recognized and appreciated when protecting and appreciating copyright and intellectual property of the artist. Musicians should come out vocally and in numbers to condemn and fight this detestable vice. This can be best done by the formation of strong reliable and powerful artist associations and bodies which will have the mandate and tasks of monitoring and ensuring music download is done legally and they benefit from the same. There is a need for existence of independent and cooperate copyright agent monitors. Who will work closely for or with the government music bodies, record labels, music distribution companies media houses. (Johnson Broida, 2002) Additionally, music promoters and online marketers of music together with the website owners to ensure efficient tracking of music download. Enabling to keep the actions in the right track and eliminate illegal music downloading or keep it to a bare minimum. The government needs to step in the fight against illegal music downloads by setting up agencies and departments to monitor and control the same. Legal actions should be taken against those found engaging in illegal music download and heavy fines and penalties imposed on the culprits to punish them. Get legal settlements to compensate the musicians and deter and discourage other potential illegal music down-loaders. There should be also financial implications for any individual, company, group or institution whose members engage in this act with full knowledge of the relevant authorities. Disciplinary actions therefore should be taken against students in educational institutions where this practice is done at an alarming rate, mostly with impunity since the perpetrators hide under the veil of the majority of numbers and institutional cover. CONCLUSION In a nutshell, the long and short of it is that if allowed to continue, illegal music download will continue hurting musicians and also the perpetrators when stun action is taken against them. The eventual effect is the ruining of the music industry and killing of dreams, new talents and music. The question is if one loves music so much, why not go out and legally purchase it?

A Phoney in The Fifty Dollar Bill :: The Fifty Dollar Bill

A Phoney in The Fifty Dollar Bill  Ã‚        Ã‚  In "The Fifty Dollar Bill" written by Donald Hall, the narrator of the story seems to be an honest man, but is he really? I believe for the most part he is very honest—except for when he did not want to be drafted so he bribed his congressman. He had several reasons for wanting to be exempt from the draft. He was always honest, until he realized he had something important that could be lost. The very beginning of the story starts with the narrator talking to us (the readers) about how honest he is. He tells about how he is well respected both in his profession and in the community where respect "is not accorded easily" (Hall 957). He is saying since he is a lawyer, respect is hard to earn. He tells us all the things he has never done: "I have never asked the judge who is my best friend to fix a ticket for the son of my liquor dealer. I have never promised a favor to a detective in order to hide evidence unfavorable to my client" (957). He is making it a point for us to believe he is honest. When he talks about other lawyers, he says they "live on intimate terms with dishonesty" (957). This statement implies that he could not handle being dishonest, or that at least he does not "live on intimate terms" with dishonesty. However, the final statement of the first paragraph, "I call myself an honest man," does not really sound like he means what he is saying. He says, "I call myself an honest man," not "I am an honest man." If the narrator was so worried about being honest, what reasons could he have had to try to bribe the congressman? He had a lot to deal with when the rumors of the draft came around. The narrator was a third-year law student. He only had one more year to complete before he got his degree. His wife was pregnant and about to have their first child. Those two things were very important to him, and he could not take the chance of losing them. Not only this, but he feared his own death. He had a "repeated sequence in his mind’s eye" in which he kept seeing his own death. The dream not only took place while be was asleep, he also saw his death while he was awake.

Old World Confronts New World: Europe is Faced with Reminders of its P

Old World Confronts New World: Europe is Faced with Reminders of its Primitive Past The nature of the cultural confrontation that took place between Old and New World cultures was profoundly shaped by the condition of fifteenth century Christian Europe at the moment of contact. Recent scholarship demonstrating parallels between New World and Old World paganism(1) raises the question of whether the reactions of fifteenth century Europeans to the native American cultures were conditioned by their own subconscious awareness of such cultural similarities. Given their history of suppression of their own primitive past, Europeans responded to the New World in the only way they knew how. Everywhere they turned they encountered alien cultural traditions exhibiting characteristics that reminded them of their own subconscious dragons. Acceptance of the Indian cultures on their own terms would have threatened the very catholic social order that had been the sole unifying force in Europe since the disintegration of the Roman Empire. The European predisposition to denigrate everything outside Christian experience was further accentuated by deep internal divisions within Europe that began to rend Christendom asunder in the sixteenth century. If the permanent opening of the Americas had occurred twelve centuries earlier under the Roman Empire, the nature of the transatlantic cultural exchange might have been dramatically different. For all of their military expansionism and enslavement of conquered enemies, the Romans were remarkably tolerant of cultural and religious diversity. Indeed, their conquest of Germanic tribes along their northern frontier did not prevent them from incorporating Germanic ideas and peoples into their own... ...12. 47 Graves, p. 201. 48 Kerenyi, C., Eleusis: Archetypal Images of Mother and Daughter (New York: Pantheon Books, 1967), pp. 177-180. 49 Givry, Emile Grillot de, Picture Museum of Sorcery, Magic, and Alchemy (New York: University Books, 1929), p. 70. 50 Mattingly, H., Tacitus on Britain and Germany (Baltimore: Penguin Books, 1967), pp. 106-107. 51 Campbell, The Way of the Seeded Earth, p. 132. 52 Sauer, Carl O., Seeds, Spades, Hearths, and Herds (Cambridge, Mass.: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1969), p. 28. 53 Chiapelli, Fred, First Images of America, Vol. I (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1976), pp. 12-26. 54 Axtell, p. 72. 55 Ibid., p. 131. 56 Diaz, Bernal, The Conquest of New Spain, trans. by J.M. Cohen (New York: Penguin Books, 1963), pp. 60-61. 57 Axtell, p. 48. Old World Confronts New World: Europe is Faced with Reminders of its P Old World Confronts New World: Europe is Faced with Reminders of its Primitive Past The nature of the cultural confrontation that took place between Old and New World cultures was profoundly shaped by the condition of fifteenth century Christian Europe at the moment of contact. Recent scholarship demonstrating parallels between New World and Old World paganism(1) raises the question of whether the reactions of fifteenth century Europeans to the native American cultures were conditioned by their own subconscious awareness of such cultural similarities. Given their history of suppression of their own primitive past, Europeans responded to the New World in the only way they knew how. Everywhere they turned they encountered alien cultural traditions exhibiting characteristics that reminded them of their own subconscious dragons. Acceptance of the Indian cultures on their own terms would have threatened the very catholic social order that had been the sole unifying force in Europe since the disintegration of the Roman Empire. The European predisposition to denigrate everything outside Christian experience was further accentuated by deep internal divisions within Europe that began to rend Christendom asunder in the sixteenth century. If the permanent opening of the Americas had occurred twelve centuries earlier under the Roman Empire, the nature of the transatlantic cultural exchange might have been dramatically different. For all of their military expansionism and enslavement of conquered enemies, the Romans were remarkably tolerant of cultural and religious diversity. Indeed, their conquest of Germanic tribes along their northern frontier did not prevent them from incorporating Germanic ideas and peoples into their own... ...12. 47 Graves, p. 201. 48 Kerenyi, C., Eleusis: Archetypal Images of Mother and Daughter (New York: Pantheon Books, 1967), pp. 177-180. 49 Givry, Emile Grillot de, Picture Museum of Sorcery, Magic, and Alchemy (New York: University Books, 1929), p. 70. 50 Mattingly, H., Tacitus on Britain and Germany (Baltimore: Penguin Books, 1967), pp. 106-107. 51 Campbell, The Way of the Seeded Earth, p. 132. 52 Sauer, Carl O., Seeds, Spades, Hearths, and Herds (Cambridge, Mass.: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1969), p. 28. 53 Chiapelli, Fred, First Images of America, Vol. I (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1976), pp. 12-26. 54 Axtell, p. 72. 55 Ibid., p. 131. 56 Diaz, Bernal, The Conquest of New Spain, trans. by J.M. Cohen (New York: Penguin Books, 1963), pp. 60-61. 57 Axtell, p. 48.

Collaborative Fund-Raising Activity Essay

The strategies that I feel that will solve the funding needs for Phoenix Homeless Agency (PHA) the best is having volunteers, having different type of fundraisers, and accepting donations of any amount. The reason for these three is because they are a more successful way of solving the struggle the agency having. Having volunteers will allow the help of volunteered peers that are concerned and willing to help out to continue providing job counseling to qualify recipients. They will help to get the word around by doing things that the agency would want or maybe what they suggest to help out that will make the agency successful. By having many different fundraisers will set a great deed for making money to uphold a quality that the agency require by doing fundraisers the community may enjoy attending to. Examples of some of the different fundraisers people may enjoy that I would consider are bake sales, auctions, garage sales, or even something like a kids/parent night. Successfully raising large amounts of money requires a focused, strategic effort involving careful planning and coordination. Taking donations is a common strategy to use by raising money because you appreciate whatever that is offered by anyone that will help when you are in need of help because everything helps if it is not much. Cash donations are a straightforward strategy because many will use it as a tax deduction because cash contributions can be claimed for a tax deduction up to fifty percent on their modified adjusted gross income.

Time Series

IntroductionA time series is a set of observations, xi each one being recorded at a specific time t. After being recorded, these data are rigorously studied to develop a model. This model will then be used to construct future values, in other words, to make a forecast. When looking at a time series, some questions must be asked:Does the time series have a trend or seasonality?Are their outliers? Is there constant variance over time?Essential of Good time seriesThe data must be long enough.There must be equal time gap.There must be a normal period.Example1The following plot is a time series plot of the annual number of earthquakes in the world with seismic magnitude over 7.0, for 99 consecutive years. By a time series plot, we simply mean that the variable is plotted against time.Some features of the plot:There is no trend.The mean of the series is 20.2.There is no seasonality as the data are annual data.There are no outliers.Example 2 This shows a time series of quarterly production of beer in Australia for 18 years.Some features are:There is an increasing trend. There is seasonality.There are no outliers.The Components of Time SeriesThe components of time series are factors that can bring changes to the time series:Trend component, TtWhen there is an increase or a decrease over a long period of time in the data, then we say that there is a trend. Sometimes, a trend is said to be changing direction when it goes from an increasing trend to a decreasing one. It is the result of events such as price inflation, population growth or economic changes. Seasonal component, StA seasonal pattern exists when the time series exhibits regular variations at specific time. It arises from influences such as natural conditions or social and cultural behaviors. For example, the sales of ice-cream are relatively high in summer. So, the salesman expects greater profit in summer than in winter. Cyclic component, CtIf the time series shows an up and down movement around a given period of time, it is said to have a cyclical pattern.Irregular component, ItIrregular components consist of changes that are unlikely to be repeated in a time series. Examples are floods, fires, earthquakes or cyclones.Combining the time series componentsTime series is a combination of the components which were discussed above. These components can be either combined additively or multiplicatively.Additive modelIt is linear, and the changes are made by the same amount over time.Yt = Tt + Ct + St + ItMultiplicative modelIt is non-linear such as quadratic or exponential, and the changes increase or decrease over time.Yt = Tt Ãâ€"Ct Ãâ€" St Ãâ€" ItUsesTime series can be useful in the following fields: StatisticsSignal processingEconometricsMathematical financeAstronomyEarthquake predictionsWeather forecastingImportance of Time series for businessesThere are many benefits of time series for business purposes:Helpful for study of past behaviorBusinessmen use time series to study the past behaviors and to see the trend of the sales or profit of their businesses. Helpful in forecastingTime series is a great tool for forecasting. Businesses can make a time series of the past strategies of their competitors and make an estimate of their future strategies. In this way, they make can built a better strategy and make more profits.Helpful in comparisonTime series can be used to calculate the trend of two or more branches of the same company and compare their performance. On their performances, rewards can be given. However, time series can have some limitations for a business. Sales forecasting relies on the past results to predict future expectations. But, if a company is new, there is a limited amount of data to make predictions. Even so, past results do not always indicate what the future sales will be.To fully understand this topic, we will work out this example. Example 2We will consider the actual arrival of passengers from an airport over the year 1949 to 1960. From these data, we will make a forecast.The first step is to plot the data and obtain descriptive measures such as trends or seasonal fluctuations.The second step is to check for the stationarity of the time series.StationarityA time series is said to be stationary if its mean and variance does not change over time. Obviously, not all the time series that we encounter are stationary. It is important because, most of the models we work on, assumes that the time series is stationary. If the time series has the same behavior over time, there will be a high probability that it will follow the same trend in the future.How to check for stationarity?For the graph that was plotted, we can see that it has an increasing trend with some seasonal pattern. But, it is not always evident to see whether a plot is increasing or has a seasonal trend. We can check for stationarity using the following:Plotting rolling statisticsWe plot the moving average or variance and see whether it changes with time. But, as it is a visual technique, we will take more consideration for the next test. Dickey-Fuller testIt is one of the statistical methods to check for stationarity. The null hypothesis is that the time series is non-stationary, and the alternative hypothesis is the converse.As shown below, the test consists of the test statistics and critical values at different significant levels. If the test statistics is less than the critical value, we reject the null hypothesis. Results of Dickey-Fuller Test: Test Statistic 0.815369p-value 0.991880#Lags Used 13.000000Number of Observations Used 130.000000Critical Value (1%) -3.481682Critical Value (5%) -2.884042Critical Value (10%) -2.578770According to the Dickey-Fuller test, the test statistics is less than the critical value. Therefore, the time series is not stationary. However, there are various methods to make a time series stationary.How to make a time series stationary?The assumption of stationarity is very important when modelling a time series, but most of the practical time series are not stationary. Eventually, we cannot make a time series one hundred percent stationary, most of the time, it will be with a confidence of 99%.Before going into detail, we will discuss on the reasons why the time series is not stationary. There are two major reasons to that, trend and seasonality.Having discuss the reasons, we will now talk about the techniques to make the time series stationary:TransformationLog transformation is probably the most commonly used form of transformation. DifferencingDifferencing is a widely used method to make the time series stationary. It is performed by subtracting the previous observation from the current one. When making the forecast, the process of differencing must be inverted to convert the data back to its original scale. This can be done by adding the difference value to the previous value. Using the Dickey-Fuller test we can see that the test statistic is -2.717131 and that the critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% are -3.482501, -2.884398 and -2.578960 respectivelyThe time series is stationary with 90% confidence. The second or third order differencing can be done to get better results.DecompositionIn decomposition, the time series is divided into several components mainly trend, cyclical, seasonal and irregular components. The time series can sometimes be broken down into an additive or multiplicative model.We will assume a multiplicative model for our example.Since the trend and seasonality were separated from the residuals, we can check the stationarity of the residuals.Results of Dickey-Fuller Test is test statistic is -6.332387e+00 and the critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% are -3.485122e+00, -2.885538e+00 and -2.579569e+00 respectively. We can conclude that the time series is stationary at 99% confidence.Now, we can go forward with the forecasting.Forecasting the time seriesWe will fit this time series using the ARIMA model, ARIMA is an acronym that stands for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. It is a linear equation similar to a linear regression. The first goal is to find the values of the predictors (p, d, q), but before finding these values, two situations in stationarity must be discussed.A strictly stationary series without any dependence among the values. In this case, we can model the residual as white noise.The second case is a series with significant dependency among the values. The predictors mainly depend on the parameters (p, d, q) of the ARIMA model:Number of AR(Auto-Regressive) terms (p)It is the number of lag observation that were included in the model. This term helps to incorporate the effect of the past values into the model.Number of MA (Moving Average) terms (q)It is the size of the moving average window, that is, this term sets the error of the model as a linear combination of the error values observed at previous time points in the past. Number of differences(d)The number of times that the raw observations are differenced.In order to obtain the values of p and q, we will use the following two plots:Autocorrelation Function, ACFThis function will measure the correlation of the time series with its lagged version. Partial Autocorrelation Function, PACFThis function measures the correlation between the time series with a lagged version of itself, controlling the values of the time series at all shorter lagsIn the ACF and PACF plots, the dotted lines are the confidence interval, these values are p and q. The value of p is obtained from the PACF plot and the value of q is obtained from the ACF plot. We can see that both p and q are 2. Now, that we have obtained p and q, we will make three different ARIMA model: AR, MA and the combined model. The RSS of each of the model will be given.AR modelMA modelCombined modelFrom the plots, it is clearly shown that the RSS of AR and MA are the same and that of the combined is much better. As the combined model give a better result, the following steps will take the values back to its original scale. The predicted results are stored.The differencing is converted the log scale. This can be done by adding the differences consecutively to the base numbers.The exponent is taken and is compared to the original scale.Therefore, we have the final result.ReferencesAarshay Jain(2016) A comprehensive beginner's guide to create a Time Series Forecast (with Codes in Python) [WWW] Available from https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/02/time-series-forecasting-codes-python/ [Accessed 14/04/18]Maxime Phillot (2017)How do I interpret the results in an augmented Dickey-Fuller test? [WWW] Available from https://www.quora.com/How-do-I-interpret-the-results-in-an-augmented-Dickey-Fuller-test [Accessed 23/04/18]Jason Brownlee (2016)What Is Time Series Forecasting? [WWW] Available from https://machinelearningmastery.com/time-series-forecasting/ [Accessed 23/04/18]Chris St.Jeor and Sean Ankenbruck (2018)Time Series for dummies- The 3 step process [WWW] Available from https://www.kdnuggets.com/2018/ 03/time-series-dummies-3-step-process.html [Accessed 22/04/18]Pennsylvania state university (n. d) Overview of Time Series Characteristics [WWW] Available from https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat510/node/47 [Accessed 22/04/18] Time Series A time series is a set of observations, xi each one being recorded at a specific time t. After being recorded, these data are rigorously studied to develop a model. This model will then be used to produce future values, in other words, to make a forecast.Important Characteristics to Consider FirstWhen first looking at a time series, some questions must be asked:Does the time series has a trend or seasonality over time?Are their outliers? With time series data, the outliers are far away from the other data.Is there a long-run cycle or period?Is there constant variance over time? Essential of Good time series Data must be for a sufficient period Equal time ga Constant or normal period. Example1The following plot is a time series plot of the annual number of earthquakes in the world with seismic magnitude over 7.0, for 99 consecutive years. By a time series plot, we simply mean that the variable is plotted against time.Some features of the plot:There is no trend.The mean of the series is 20.2There is no seasonality as the data are annual data.There are no outliers. Example 2 The plot at the top of the next page shows a time series of quarterly production of beer in Australia for 18 years.Some important features are:There is an increasing trend.There is seasonality.There are no obvious outliers.The Components of Time SeriesThe components of time series are factors that can bring changes to the time series:Trend component, TtWhen there is an increase or a decrease over a long period of time in the data, then we say that there is a trend. Sometimes, a trend is said to be changing direction when it goes from an increasing trend to a decreasing one. It is the result of events such as price inflation, population growth or economic changes.Seasonal component, StA seasonal pattern exists when the time series exhibits regular fluctuations at specific time. It arises from influences such as natural conditions or social and cultural behaviors. For example, the sales of ice-cream are relatively high in summer. So, the salesman expects greater profit in summer than in winter. Cyclic component, CtIf the time series shows an up and down movement around a given period of time, it is said to have a cyclical pattern.Irregular component, ItIrregular components consist of changes that are unlikely to be repeated in a time series. Examples are floods, fires, earthquakes or cyclones.Combining the time series componentsTime series is a combination of the components which were discussed above. These components can be either combined additively or multiplicatively.Additive modelIt is linear, and the changes are made by the same amount over time.Yt = Tt + Ct + St + ItMultiplicative modelIt is non-linear such as quadratic or exponential, and the changes increase or decrease over time. Yt = Tt Ãâ€"Ct Ãâ€" St Ãâ€" ItUsesTime series can be useful in the following fields:StatisticsSignal processingEconometricsMathematical financeAstronomyEarthquake predictionsWeather forecastingImportance of Time series for businessesThere are many benefits of time series for business purposes:Helpful for study of past behaviorBusinessmen use time series to study the past behaviors and to see the trend of the sales or profit of their businesses. Helpful in forecastingTime series is a great tool for forecasting. Businesses can make a time series of the past strategies of their competitors and make an estimate of their future strategies. In this way, they make can built a better strategy and make more profits.Helpful in comparisonTime series can be used to calculate the trend of two or more branches of the same company and compare their performance. On their performances, rewards can be given. However, time series can have some limitations for a business. Sales forecasting relies on the past results to predict future expectations. But, if a company is new, there is a limited amount of data to make predictions. Even so, past results do not always indicate what the future sales will be.To fully understand this topic, we will work out this example.Example 2We will consider the actual arrival of passengers from an airport over the year 1949 to 1960. From these data, we will make a forecast. The first step is to plot the data and obtain descriptive measures such as trends or seasonal fluctuations.The second step is to check for the stationarity of the time series.StationarityA time series is said to be stationary if its mean and variance does not change over time. Obviously, not all the time series that we encounter are stationary. It is important because, most of the models we work on, assumes that the time series is stationary. If the time series has the same behavior over time, there will be a high probability that it will follow the same trend in the future.How to check for stationarity?For the graph that was plotted, we can see that it has an increasing trend with some seasonal pattern. But, it is not always evident to see whether a plot is increasing or has a seasonal trend. We can check for stationarity using the following:Plotting rolling statisticsWe plot the moving average or variance and see whether it changes with time. But, as it is a visual technique, we will take more consideration for the next test.Dickey-Fuller testIt is one of the statistical methods to check for stationarity. The null hypothesis is that the time series is non-stationary, and the alternative hypothesis is the converse.As shown below, the test consists of the test statistics and critical values at different significant levels. If the test statistics is less than the critical value, we reject the null hypothesis. Results of Dickey-Fuller Test: Test Statistic 0.815369p-value 0.991880#Lags Used 13.000000Number of Observations Used 130.000000Critical Value (1%) -3.481682Critical Value (5%) -2.884042Critical Value (10%) -2.578770According to the Dickey-Fuller test, the test statistics is less than the critical value. Therefore, the time series is not stationary. However, there are various methods to make a time series stationary.How to make a time series stationary?The assumption of stationarity is very important when modelling a time series, but most of the practical time series are not stationary. Eventually, we cannot make a time series one hundred percent stationary, most of the time, it will be with a confidence of 99%.Before going into detail, we will discuss on the reasons why the time series is not stationary. There are two major reasons to that, trend and seasonality.Having discuss the reasons, we will now talk about the techniques to make the time series stationary:TransformationLog transformation is probably the most commonly used form of transformation.DifferencingDifferencing is a widely used method to make the time series stationary. It is performed by subtracting the previous observation from the current one. When making the forecast, the process of differencing must be inverted to convert the data back to its original scale. This can be done by adding the difference value to the previous value.Using the Dickey-Fuller test we can see that the test statistic is -2.717131 and that the critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% are -3.482501, -2.884398 and -2.578960 respectivelyThe time series is stationary with 90% confidence. The second or third order differencing can be done to get better results.DecompositionIn decomposition, the time series is divided into several components mainly trend, cyclical, seasonal and irregular components.The time series can sometimes be broken down into an additive or multiplicative model.We will assume a multiplicative model for our example.Since the trend and seasonality were separated from the residuals, we can check the stationarity of the residuals.Results of Dickey-Fuller Test is test statistic is -6.332387e+00 and the critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% are -3.48 5122e+00, -2.885538e+00 and -2.579569e+00 respectively. We can conclude that the time series is stationary at 99% confidence.Now, we can go forward with the forecasting.Forecasting the time seriesWe will fit this time series using the ARIMA model, ARIMA is an acronym that stands for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. It is a linear equation similar to a linear regression. The first goal is to find the values of the predictors (p, d, q), but before finding these values, two situations in stationarity must be discussed. A strictly stationary series without any dependence among the values. In this case, we can model the residual as white noise.The second case is a series with significant dependency among the values.The predictors mainly depend on the parameters (p, d, q) of the ARIMA model:Number of AR(Auto-Regressive) terms (p)It is the number of lag observation that were included in the model. This term helps to incorporate the effect of the past values into the model. Number of MA (Moving Average) terms (q)It is the size of the moving average window, that is, this term sets the error of the model as a linear combination of the error values observed at previous time points in the past.Number of differences(d)The number of times that the raw observations are differenced.In order to obtain the values of p and q, we will use the following two plots:Autocorrelation Function, ACFThis function will measure the correlation of the time series with its lagged version. Partial Autocorrelation Function, PACFThis function measures the correlation between the time series with a lagged version of itself, controlling the values of the time series at all shorter lagsIn the ACF and PACF plots, the dotted lines are the confidence interval, these values are p and q. The value of p is obtained from the PACF plot and the value of q is obtained from the ACF plot. We can see that both p and q are 2.Now, that we have obtained p and q, we will make three different ARIMA model: AR, MA and the combined model. The RSS of each of the model will be given.AR modelMA modelCombined modelFrom the plots, it is clearly shown that the RSS of AR and MA are the same and that of the combined is much better. As the combined model give a better result, the following steps will take the values back to its original scale.The predicted results are stored.The differencing is converted the log scale. This can be done by adding the differences consecutively to the base numbers.The exponent is taken and is compared to the original scale.Therefore, we have the final result.ReferencesAarshay Jain(2016) A comprehensive beginner's guide to create a Time Series Forecast (with Codes in Python) [WWW] Available from https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/02/time-series-forecasting-codes-python/ [Accessed 14/04/18]Maxime Phillot (2017) How do I interpret the results in an augmented Dickey-Fuller test? [WWW] Available from https://www.quora.com/How-do-I-interpret-the-results-in-an-augmented-Dickey-Fuller-test [Access ed 23/04/18]Jason Brownlee (2016) What Is Time Series Forecasting? [WWW] Available from https://machinelearningmastery.com/time-series-forecasting/ [Accessed 23/04/18]Chris St.Jeor and Sean Ankenbruck (2018) Time Series for dummies- The 3 step process [WWW] Available from https://www.kdnuggets.com/2018/03/time-series-dummies-3-step-process.html [Accessed 22/04/18]Pennsylvania state university (n. d) Overview of Time Series Characteristics [WWW] Available from https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat510/node/47 [Accessed 22/04/18]

Now That’s What I Call Music, Piracy! Essay

I bought my first CD when I was about 10 years old. My mom had drove me to Target and allowed me to purchase one CD of my choosing; I chose Now 11. I spent what felt like hours scouring the aisles of the store looking for the 11th edition of Now That’s What I Call Music and finally found it on the shelf. I remember being filled with excitement and anticipation as we drove home; I was so anxious to put it into my CD player. I remember the only reason I wanted it was because there was a few rap songs my brother listened to on it. Since my mother didn’t allow me to listen to his music, I knew this was a great way to slide it past her. I will never forget that CD; I listened to it for days on end. As I played the CD, I poured over the insert book, reading the lyrics and singing along. Today if I wanted to own that same Now 11 CD the experience would be entirely different. A few simple searches on the Internet would lead me to various file-sharing websites where I could easi ly download the album for free. Instant gratification. I wouldn’t have to look through aisles, no waiting in line, and no money necessary. This change in technology has done more harm than good to the music industry and the economy. Downloading music, whether legally or illegally, has completely changed the record industry. Consumers seem perfectly content to click their computer mouse a few times and download whatever songs they want at their leisure. It all makes perfect sense; the technology world is changing and we are taking what we are given. Almost everyone has an iPod or some other portable music device and the days of sitting around a stereo and listening to an album from start to finish seem lost forever. Digital downloads are far more convenient than buying physical albums. They don’t take up shelf space in your home and as long as you back up all your files, you don’t need to worry about losing your favorite album. However, common music pirates tend to lack the knowledge of who or how they are affecting. The transition from physical copies of music to digital downloads has made music a commodity in the United States. It seems that music has been completely devalued by this evolution in technology. The excitement of going out to a record store and having to look for a specific album is gone. Virtually everything is available online and whether music fans realize it or not, society has come to take this art form for granted. According to the Record Industry Association of America, â€Å"global music piracy causes $12.5 billion in economic losses every year† (Who). There is no doubt it takes an affect on our $16 trillion plus national debt. This economic loss also affects the employees of record labels with 70,000 lost jobs (Who). With the US unemployment rate currently at 7.9%, it definitely takes a toll on that as well (Databases). Consequently these economic downfalls music piracy is cre ating detracts from revenue that could be spent on finding and promoting new artists and allowing signed artists to record more albums. Losing money to piracy also has a profound effect on working musicians themselves. Artists are now forced to make up a large part of their earnings through licensing their songs to television commercials and shows, touring relentlessly, and selling merchandise. Even with these alternatives to offset the fall in record sales, artists can still struggle to make ends meet. Renting a tour bus and paying for a driver and gas can cost a small music artist almost a $1,000 (Arnold). In 2007, the Boston based band, The Dresden Dolls, told National Public Radio (NPR) Music in an interview that their record contract had them receiving about $1 in royalties for every CD sold, but â€Å"before a band gets to see any of that, it has to sell enough CDs to cover all of the label’s production expenses, which can amount to hundreds of thousands of dollars† (Arnold). Most artists try to dig themselves out of this hole through relentless touring, but even selling tickets comes with a price. Venue and concert promoters take a share out of an artists ticket sales, they even have sound technicians and others workers to pay for too. One could look back on Noah Webster, who is primarily known for his early and influential dictionary; he campaigned in the 1780’s for copyright laws to protect American author’s content (Paulson). He would not have been amused with today’s copyright issues. The printers of the 1780’s were not large corporations. They were small shops making their living largely by stealing the content of books published in Europe (Paulson). What’s so different about music piracy and the music industry today? Webster wanted to make sure his work would not be published without compensation, just like the music industry is trying to do today. The debate over illegal downloading often focuses on technology. Those who defend the unauthorized sharing of music say that critics are living in the past and had better get used to the new reality. But that new reality is taking a toll. â€Å"Over the past decade, America has lost a staggering number of professional songwriters and composers, primarily due to the impact of illegal music downloading,† says Bart Herbison, executive director of the National Songwriters Association. â€Å"Those that remain in the profession are struggling to earn even a minimal income† (Paulson). Most illegally downloaded songs come from major stars and labels, but the food chain surrounding major artists includes struggling songwriters, producers, and musicians trying to get by in a damaged industry. Unauthorized downloading is a global issue, and no one nation will provide a solution, but America’s origins suggest we should care more than most music pirates. It’s not about business models or emerging technology. It’s about living up to what Webster and the first generation of Americans believed. Art should be free, but not necessarily free of charge. Consequently record labels and artists are not taking these losses lightly. In addition to public campaigns against piracy, the record industry has prosecuted numerous people suspected and guilty of downloading music illegally. Most recently The Boston Globe reported that a Boston University graduate student was fined $675,000 in damages for illegally downloading 30 songs and sharing them online (Valencia). That’s a far cry from the $30 he would have paid had he simply bought the songs on iTunes. Yet shockingly some say this graduate student got off lucky. In June of 2009, CNN reported that a 32-year-old Minnesota woman was found guilty of downloading music illegally and ordered to pay $1.9 million dollars for 24 songs (Friend). In the midst of battling online piracy, the record industry is desperately trying to find ways to encourage consumers to buy albums again. In September of this year, Apple announced its newest version of iTunes called iTunes LP. This new program will include album artwork, photos, lyrics, and videos as part of an album purchase, in effect recreating the physical album experience (Apple). The company hopes that by offering these extra incentives to consumers, people will be more likely to spend their money on music as opposed to sharing files with each other. Some may wonder what caused this digital music war; I say it could be blamed on Napster, invented by Shawn Fanning in 1999. Napster was a peer-to-peer file sharing program that bas â€Å"let the cat out of the bag† by allowing digital music to be accessed by virtually anyone for free. However on March 5th, 2001, Fanning and Napster were sued and prevented from sharing their copyrighted music. Not long after that came LimeWire, started by Mark Gorton in 2000. It was another free peer-to-peer file sharing program that expanded on what Napster created. Finally on May 12th, 2011, the Recording Industry Association of America announced its $105 million case settlement with major recording companies (Sisario). In the lawsuit, the labels identified â€Å"more than 9,000 recordings made since 1972 that had been traded on LimeWire without permission and sought damages of up to $150,000 for each song† (Sisario). Although the $105 million settlement is far from the $1.4 billion the labels had sought as a maximum penalty, the companies are hoping that the case will restrain further piracy since Mr. Gorton, a former Wall Street trader with millions in personal assets, also faced liability (Sisario). Fortunately there are a few music programs like Spotify and Pandora that are doing their best to combat music piracy. Pandora launched in 2000 but has since become increasingly popular today. With Pandora you can create up to 100 personal radio stations that play the music you like with advertisements in between every couple songs. It has over 150 million registered users today (Sasario). Spotify is a music-based streaming service that is based out of Sweden since 2009. It just opened in the US in July 2012. They offer users unlimited music for little (or no) money. Pay just $10 per month – the cost of a single album – and you can literally play music non-stop on your computer or mobile device. Don’t want to pay? No problem. Spotify has various options (depending on whether you’re in the US or Europe) for getting at least some music for free (Couts). Not only that, but you get to choose from Spotify’s catalog of 15 million songs (Couts). In Sweden, since 2009 when Spotify debuted, music piracy has dropped 25 percent. Including 9 percent alone this last year (Couts). There is no actual way to tell if it’ll do the same in the US, only time will tell. It’s hard to argue that we won’t see similar decreases in piracy if Spotify keeps the popularity it has today. Although Pandora and Spotify rake in millions of dollars there is one thing that keeps them from gaining money: the cost of music royalties. Pandora, who just went public last summer, â€Å"has never had a profitable year†, and in its most recently reported quarter lost $20 million on $81 million in revenue. Spotify’s accounts for the last year, recently filed in Luxembourg, show that it lost $57 million in 2011, despite a big increase in revenue, to $236 million (Sasario). With artists and labels hit hard by declining sales over the last decade, it’s hard to argue for lower royalty rates. It’s fair to say that the graveyard of failed digital services, and the financial struggles of Pandora and Spotify show that the music industry hasn’t yet figured out the balance between licensing costs and how much money a digital service can make. Altogether the music industry will never fully be rid of music piracy. Will music piracy destroy the economic wellbeing of the music industry? Only time will tell. People will continue to burn CDs and share music with one another, and file-sharing websites will probably always exist. I believe the best way to combat piracy is to keep consumers informed about the consequences of downloading music illegally, not only for the record companies but for everyone working in the music industry. The next time you consider downloading music from a file sharing website or giving a CD of yours to a friend, consider this: is 99 cents per song really too much to ask for all the months of labor musicians, producers, engineers, and record labels put into creating an album for you? If you still feel it is, I hope you plan on spending $40 on concert tickets sometime soon. Works Cited â€Å"Apple – ITunes – ITunes LP and ITunes Extras.† Apple – ITunes – ITunes LP and ITunes Extras. Apple Inc., n.d. Web. 01 Nov. 2012. Arnold, Chris. â€Å"Band Tries to Make It Big Without Going Broke.† NPR. NPR, 17 Jan. 2007. Web. 01 Nov. 2012. Couts, Andrew. â€Å"Spotify Linked to Major Decline in Music Piracy.† Digital Trends. N.p., 29 Sept. 2011. Web. 01 Nov. 2012. â€Å"Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject.† Bureau of Labor Statistics Data. United States Department of Labor, Oct. 2012. Web. 16 Nov. 2012. Friend, Elianne. â€Å"Woman Fined to Tune of $1.9 Million for Illegal Downloads.† CNN. Cable News Network, 18 June 2009. Web. 01 Nov. 2012. Paulson, Ken. â€Å"First Amendment Center.† Real Cost of ‘free’ Downloads. USA Today, 21 Aug. 2012. Web. 08 Nov. 2012. Sisario, Ben. â€Å"Major Record Labels Settle Suit With LimeWire.† Media Decoder Blog. The New York Times, 12 May 2011. Web. 01 Nov. 2012. Sisario, Ben. â€Å"Pandora and Spotify Rake In the Money and Then Send It Off in Royalties.† Media Decoder Blog. The New York Times, 24 Aug. 2012. Web. 01 Nov. 2012. Valencia, Milton J. â€Å"Supreme Court Refuses to Hear Music Downloading Appeal.† BostonGlobe.com. N.p., 22 May 2012. Web. 01 Nov. 2012. â€Å"Who Music Theft Hurts.† Http://www.riaa.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 01 Nov. 2012.

The Vampire Diaries: The Awakening Chapter Seven

Bonnie was on the dance floor, eyes shut, letting the music flow through her. When she opened her eyes for an instant, Meredith was beckoning from the sidelines. Bonnie thrust her chin out mutinously, but as the gestures became more insistent she rolled her eyes up at Raymond and obeyed. Raymond followed. Matt and Ed were behind Meredith. Matt was scowling. Ed was looking uncomfortable. â€Å"Elena just left,† said Meredith. â€Å"It's a free country,† said Bonnie. â€Å"She went with Tyler Smallwood,† said Meredith. â€Å"Matt, are you sure you didn't hear where they were going?† Matt shook his head. â€Å"I'd say she deserves whatever happens-but it's my fault, too, in a way,† he said bleakly. â€Å"I guess we ought to go after her.† â€Å"Leave thedance ?† Bonnie said. She looked at Meredith, who mouthed the wordsyou promised . â€Å"I don't believe this,† she muttered savagely. â€Å"I don't know how we'll find her,† said Meredith, â€Å"but we've got to try.† Then she added, in a strangely hesitant voice, â€Å"Bonnie,you don't happen to know where she is, do you?† â€Å"What? No, of course not; I've been dancing. You've heard of that, haven't you: what you go to a dance for?† â€Å"You and Ray stay here,† Matt said to Ed. â€Å"If she comes back, tell her we're out looking.† â€Å"And if we're going, we'd better go now,† Bonnie put in ungraciously. She turned and promptly ran into a dark blazer. â€Å"Well, excuse me,† she snapped, looking up and seeing Stefan Salvatore. He said nothing as she and Meredith and Matt headed for the door, leaving an unhappy-looking Raymond and Ed behind. The stars were distant and ice-bright in the cloudless sky. Elena felt just like them. Part of her was laughing and shouting with Dick and Vickie and Tyler over the roar of the wind, but part of her was watching from far away. Tyler parked halfway up the hill to the ruined church, leaving his headlights on as they all got out. Although there had been several cars behind them when they left the school, they appeared to be the only ones who'd made it all the way to the cemetery. Tyler opened the trunk and pulled out a six-pack. â€Å"All the more for us.† He offered a beer to Elena, who shook her head, trying to ignore the sick feeling in the pit of her stomach. She felt all wrong being here-but there was no way she was going to admit that now. They climbed the flagstone path, the girls staggering in their high heels and leaning on the boys. When they reached the top, Elena gasped and Vickie gave a little scream. Something huge and red was hovering just above the horizon. It took Elena a moment to realize it was actually the moon. It was as large and unrealistic as a prop in a science-fiction movie, and its bloated mass glowed dully with an unwholesome light. â€Å"Like a big rotten pumpkin,† said Tyler, and lobbed a stone at it. Elena made herself smile brilliantly up at him. â€Å"Why don't we go inside?† Vickie said, pointing a white hand at the empty hole of the church doorway. Most of the roof had fallen in, although the belfry was still intact, a tower stretching up high above them. Three of the walls were standing; the fourth was only knee-high. There were piles of rubble everywhere. A light flared by Elena's cheek, and she turned, startled, to see Tyler holding a lighter. He grinned, showing strong white teeth, and said, â€Å"Want to flick my Bic?† Elena's laughter was the loudest, to cover her uneasiness. She took the lighter, using it to illuminate the tomb in the side of the church. It was like no other tomb in the cemetery, although her father said he'd seen similar things in England. It looked like a large stone box, big enough for two people, with two marble statues lying in repose on the lid. â€Å"Thomas Keeping Fell and Honoria Fell,† said Tyler with a grand gesture, as if introducing them. â€Å"Old Thomas allegedly founded Fell's Church. Although actually the Smallwoods were also there at the time. My great-grandfather's great-great-grandfather lived in the valley by Drowning Creek-† â€Å"-until he got eaten by wolves,† said Dick, and he threw back his head in a wolf imitation. Then he belched. Vickie giggled. Annoyance crossed Tyler's handsome features, but he forced a smile. â€Å"Thomas and Honoria are looking kind of pale,† said Vickie, still giggling. â€Å"I think what they need is a little color.† She produced a lipstick from her purse and began to coat the white marble mouth of the woman's statue with waxy scarlet. Elena felt another sick twinge. As a child, she'd always been awed by the pale lady and the grave man who lay with their eyes closed, hands folded on their breasts. And, after her parents died, she'd thought of them as lying side by side like this down in the cemetery. But she held the lighter while the other girl put a lipstick mustache and clown's nose on Thomas Fell. Tyler was watching them. â€Å"Hey, they're all dressed up with no place to go.† He put his hands on the edge of the stone lid and leaned on it, trying to shift it sideways. â€Å"What do you say, Dick-want to give them a night out on the town? Like maybe right in the center of town?† No, thought Elena, appalled, as Dick guffawed and Vickie shrieked with laughter. But Dick was already beside Tyler, getting braced and ready, the heels of his hands on the stone lid. â€Å"On three,† said Tyler, and counted, â€Å"One, two,three .† Elena's eyes were fixed on the horrible clown-like face of Thomas Fell as the boys strained forward and grunted, muscles bunching under cloth. They couldn't budge the lid an inch. â€Å"Damn thing must be attached somehow,† said Tyler angrily, turning away. Elena felt weak with relief. Trying to seem casual, she leaned against the stone lid of the tomb for support-and that was when it happened. She heard the grinding of stone and felt the lid shift under her left hand all at once. It was moving away from her, making her lose her balance. The lighter went flying, and she screamed and screamed again, trying to keep her feet. She was falling into the open tomb, and an icy wind roared all around her. Screams rang in her ears. And then she was outside and the moonlight was bright enough that she could see the others. Tyler had hold of her. She stared around her wildly. â€Å"Are you crazy? What happened?† Tyler was shaking her. â€Å"It moved! The lid moved! It slid open and-I don't know-I almost fell in. It was cold†¦Ã¢â‚¬  The boys were laughing. â€Å"Poor baby's got the jitters,† Tyler said. â€Å"C'mon, Dicky-boy, we'll check it out.† â€Å"Tyler, no-â€Å" But they went inside anyway. Vickie hung in the doorway, watching, while Elena shivered. Presently, Tyler beckoned her from the door. â€Å"Look,† he said when she reluctantly stepped back inside. He'd retrieved the lighter, and he held it above Thomas Fell's marble chest. â€Å"It still fits, snug as a bug in a rug. See?† Elena stared down at the perfect alignment of lid and tomb. â€Å"It did move. I nearly fell into it†¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"Sure, whatever you say, baby.† Tyler wound his arms around her, clasping her to him backwards. She looked over to see Dick and Vickie in much the same position, except that Vickie, eyes shut, was looking as if she enjoyed it. Tyler rubbed a strong chin over her hair. â€Å"I'd like to go back to the dance now,† she said flatly. There was a pause in the rubbing. Then Tyler sighed and said, â€Å"Sure, baby.† He looked at Dick and Vickie. â€Å"What about you two?† Dick grinned. â€Å"We'll just stay here a while.† Vickie giggled, her eyes still shut. â€Å"Okay.† Elena wondered how they were going to get back, but she allowed Tyler to lead her out. Once outside, however, he paused. â€Å"I can't let you go without one look at my grandfather's headstone,† he said. â€Å"Aw, c'mon, Elena,† he said as she started to protest, â€Å"don't hurt my feelings. You've got to see it; it's the family pride and joy.† Elena made herself smile, although her stomach felt like ice. Maybe if she humored him, he would get her out of here. â€Å"All right,† she said, and started toward the cemetery. â€Å"Not that way. This way.† And the next moment, he was leading her down toward the old graveyard. â€Å"It's okay, honest, it's not far off the path. Look, there, you see?† He pointed to something that shone in the moonlight. Elena gasped, muscles tightening around her heart. It looked like a person standing there, a giant with a round hairless head. And she didn't like being here at all, among the worn and leaning granite stones of centuries past. The bright moonlight cast strange shadows, and there were pools of impenetrable darkness everywhere. â€Å"It's just the ball on top. Nothing to be scared of,† said Tyler, pulling her with him off the path and up to the shining headstone. It was made of red marble, and the huge ball that surmounted it reminded her of the bloated moon on the horizon. Now that same moon shone down on them, as white as Thomas Fell's white hands. Elena couldn't contain her shivering. â€Å"Poor baby, she's cold. Got to get her warned up,† said Tyler. Elena tried to push him away, but he was too strong, wrapping her in his arms, pulling her against him. â€Å"Tyler, I want to go; I want to go rightnow . †¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"Sure, baby, we'll go,† he said. â€Å"But we've got to get you warm first. Gosh, you're cold.† † Tyler, stop,† she said. His arms around her had merely been annoying, restricting, but now with a sense of shock she felt his hands on her body, groping for bare skin. Never in her life had Elena been in a situation like this, far away from any help. She aimed a spiked heel for his patent-leather instep, but he evaded her. â€Å"Tyler,take your hands off me .† â€Å"C'mon, Elena, don't be like that, I just want to warm you up all over†¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"Tyler, let go,† she choked out. She tried to wrench herself away from him. Tyler stumbled, and then his full weight was on her, crushing her into the tangle of ivy and weeds on the ground. Elena spoke desperately. â€Å"I'll kill you, Tyler. I mean it.Get off me .† Tyler tried to roll off, giggling suddenly, his limbs heavy and uncoordinated, almost useless. â€Å"Aw, c'mon, Elena, don' be mad. I was jus' warmin' you up. Elena the Ice Princess, warmin' up†¦ You're gettin' warm now, aren' you?† Then Elena felt his mouth hot andwet on her face. She was still pinned beneath him, and his sloppy kisses were moving down her throat. She heard cloth tear. â€Å"Oops,† Tyler mumbled. â€Å"Sorry 'bout that.† Elena twisted her head, and her mouth met Tyler's hand, clumsily caressing her cheek. She bit it, sinking her teeth into the fleshy palm. She bithard , tasting blood, hearing Tyler's agonized yowl. The hand jerked away. â€Å"Hey! I said I was sorry!† Tyler looked aggrievedly at his maimed hand. Then his face darkened, as, still staring at it, he clenched the hand into a fist. This is it, Elena thought with nightmare calmness. He's either going to knock me out or kill me. She braced herself for the blow. Stefan had resisted coming into the cemetery; everything within him had cried out against it. The last time he'd been here had been the night of the old man. Horror shifted through his gut again at the memory. He would have sworn that he had not drained the man under the bridge, that he had not taken enough blood to do harm. But everything that night after the surge of Power was muddled, confused. If therehad been a surge of Power at all. Perhaps that had been his own imagination, or even his own doing. Strange things could happen when the need got out of control. He shut his eyes. When he'd heard that the old man was hospitalized, near death, his shock had been beyond words. Howcould he have let himself get so far out of hand? To kill, almost, when he had not killed since†¦ He wouldn't let himself think about that. Now, standing in front of the cemetery gate in the midnight darkness, he wanted nothing so much as to turn around and go away. Go back to the dance where he'd left Caroline, that supple, sun-bronzed creature who was absolutely safe because she meant absolutely nothing to him. But he couldn't go back, because Elena was in the cemetery. He could sense her, and sense her rising distress. Elena was in the cemetery and in trouble, and he had to find her. He was halfway up the hill when the dizziness hit. It sent him reeling, struggling on toward the church because it was the only thing he could keep in focus. Gray waves of fog swept through his brain, and he fought to keep moving. Weak, he felt so weak. And helpless against the sheer power of this vertigo. He needed†¦ to go to Elena. But he was weak. He couldn't be†¦ weak†¦ if he were to help Elena. He needed†¦ to†¦ The church door yawned before him. Elena saw the moon over Tyler's left shoulder. It was strangely fitting that it would be the last thing she ever saw, she thought. The scream had caught in her throat, choked off by fear. And then something picked Tyler up and threw him against his grandfather's headstone. That was what it looked like to Elena. She rolled to the side, gasping, one hand clutching her torn dress, the other groping for a weapon. She didn't need one. Something moved in the darkness, and she saw the person who had plucked Tyler off her. Stefan Salvatore. But it was a Stefan she had never seen before: that fine-featured face was white and cold with fury, and there was a killing light in those green eyes. Without even moving, Stefan emanated such anger and menace that Elena found herself more frightened of him than she had been of Tyler. â€Å"When I first met you, I knew you'd never learned any manners,† said Stefan. His voice was soft and cold and light, and somehow it made Elena dizzy. She couldn't take her eyes off him as he moved toward Tyler, who was shaking his head dazedly and starting to get up. Stefan moved like a dancer, every movement easy and precisely controlled. â€Å"But I had no idea that your character was quite so underdeveloped.† He hit Tyler. The larger boy had been reaching out one beefy hand, and Stefan hit him almost negligently on the side of the face, before the hand made contact. Tyler flew against another headstone. He scrambled up and stood panting, his eyes showing white. Elena saw a trickle of blood from his nose. Then he charged. â€Å"A gentleman doesn't force his company on anyone,† said Stefan, and knocked him aside. Tyler went sprawling again, facedown in the weeds and briars. This time he was slower in getting up, and blood flowed from both nostrils and from his mouth. He was blowing like a frightened horse as he threw himself at Stefan. Stefan grabbed the front of Tyler's jacket, whirling them both around and absorbing the impact of the murderous rush. He shook Tyler twice, hard, while those big beefy fists windmilled around him, unable to connect. Then he let Tyler drop. â€Å"He doesn't insult a woman,† he said. Tyler's face was contorted, his eyes rolling, but he grabbed for Stefan's leg. Stefan jerked him to his feet and shook him again, and Tyler went limp as a rag doll, his eyes rolling up. Stefan went on speaking, holding the heavy body upright and punctuating every word with a bone-wrenching shake. â€Å"And, above all, he doesnot hurt her†¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"Stefan!† Elena cried. Tyler's head was snapping back and forth with every shake. She was frightened of what she was seeing; frightened of what Stefan might do. And frightened above all else of Stefan's voice, that cold voice that was like a rapier dancing, beautiful and deadly and utterly merciless. â€Å"Stefan,stop .† His head jerked toward her, startled, as if he had forgotten her presence. For a moment he looked at her without recognition, his eyes black in the moonlight, and she thought of some predator, some great bird or sleek carnivore incapable of human emotion. Then understanding came to his face and some of the darkness faded from his gaze. He looked down at Tyler's lolling head, then set him gently against the red marble tombstone. Tyler's knees buckled and he slid down the face of it, but to Elena's relief his eyes opened-or at least the left one did. The right was swelling to a slit. â€Å"He'll be all right,† said Stefan emptily. As her fear ebbed, Elena felt empty herself. Shock, she thought. I'm in shock. I'll probably start screaming hysterically any minute now. â€Å"Is there someone to take you home?† said Stefan, still in that chillingly deadened voice. Elena thought of Dick and Vickie, doing God knew what beside Thomas Fell's statue. â€Å"No,† she said. Her mind was beginning to work again, to take notice of things around her. The violet dress was ripped all the way down the front; it was ruined. Mechanically, she pulled it together over her slip. â€Å"I'll drive you,† said Stefan. Even through the numbness, Elena felt a quick thrill of fear. She looked at him, a strangely elegant figure among the tombstones, his face pale in the moonlight. He had never looked so†¦ sobeautiful to her before, but that beauty was almost alien. Not just foreign, but inhuman, because no human could project that aura of power, or of distance. â€Å"Thank you. That would be very kind,† she said slowly. There was nothing else to do. They left Tyler painfully getting to his feet by his ancestor's headstone. Elena felt another chill as they reached the path and Stefan turned toward Wickery Bridge. â€Å"I left my car at the boarding house,† he said. â€Å"This is the fastest way for us to get back.† â€Å"Is this the way you came?† â€Å"No. I didn't cross the bridge. But it'll be safe.† Elena believed him. Pale and silent, he walked beside her without touching, except when he took off his blazer to put it around her bare shoulders. She felt oddly sure he would kill anything that tried to get at her. Wickery Bridge was white in the moonlight, and under it the icy waters swirled over ancient rocks. The whole world was still and beautiful and cold as they walked through the oak trees to the narrow country road. They passed fenced pastures and dark fields until they reached a long winding drive. The boarding house was a vast building of rust-red brick made from the native clay, and it was flanked with age-old cedars and maples. All but one of the windows were dark. Stefan unlocked one of the double doors and they stepped into a small hallway, with a flight of stairs directly in front of them. The banister, like the doors, was natural light oak so polished that it seemed to glow. They went up the stairs to a second-story landing that was poorly lit. To Elena's surprise, Stefan led her into one of the bedrooms and opened what looked like a closet door. Through it she could see a very steep, very narrow stairway. What a strange place, she thought. This hidden stairway buried deep in the heart of the house, where no sound from outside could penetrate. She reached the top of the stairs and stepped out into a large room that made up the whole third story of the house. It was almost as dimly lit as the stairway, but Elena could see the stained wood floor and the exposed beams in the slanting ceiling. There were tall windows on all sides, and many trunks scattered among a few pieces of massive furniture. She realized he was watching her. â€Å"Is there a bathroom where I-?† He nodded toward a door. She took off the blazer, held it toward him without looking at him, and went inside.

Marketing Orientation Essays

Marketing Orientation Essays Marketing Orientation Paper Marketing Orientation Paper Essay Topic: Marketing This assignment is to show what is meant by marketing orientation. I will also give examples of marketing oriented companies. According to Wikipedia.org marketing oriented firm (marketing orientation) is one that allows the needs and wants of customers and possible customers to push all the firms long-term crucial decisions. The firms corporate culture is systematically committed to creating customer value. Marketing orientation is one of different types of business orientations. It is superior to other forms of business thinking. To understand why marketing orientation is to be the best way of business approach, it is crucial to know how lower levels of business orientations have developed since the 19th century. (Lancaster and Reynolds 1995) Production orientation In the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, the primary purpose of all business and industrial activity was thought to be production. Firms concentrated on improving production efficiency in an attempt to bring down the costs. Generally, companies produced whatever they could produce well, expecting effective demand for their goods and services to present itself automatically. An understanding of customers requirements was of secondary importance. (Lancaster and Reynolds 1995) The economic recession in the 1920s and 1930s brought business to the point where warehouses were full of unsold goods. Thousands of bankrupt businesses occurred. That made business people to concentrate their minds on finding out how to improve their sales volume. (Wikipedia.org 2001) Sales orientation Gradually business people understood and appreciated that in order to make profit it was something more than just to produce goods. The goods also had to be sold. The sales concept stated that effective demand had to be created through the art of persuasion using sales techniques. The sales department was thought to hold the key to the firms prosperity and survival. Scant attention was paid to the genuine needs and requirements of the final consumer, but at least it was understood that goods and services did not necessarily sell themselves. (Lancaster and Reynolds 1995) Marketing oriented The concept of marketing orientation was developed in the late 1960s and early 1970s at Harvard University. It replaced the previous sales orientation that was prevalent between the mid 1950s and the early 1970s (Wikipedia.org 2001) The marketing concept holds that achieving organizational goals depends on determining the needs and wants of target markets (customers) and delivering the desired satisfactions more effectively and efficiently than competitors do. (Kotler et al. 2005) Peter Drucker stated: Because the purpose of business is to create and keep customers, it has only two central functions- marketing and innovation. The basic function of marketing is to attract and retain customers at a profit (Jobber 2004) It is true because firm which does not keep developing its products and services is likely to start loosing customers (and profit as well) for its competitors or even struggle to keep its position on that particular market place. How customers needs and wants can be recognized? Marketing uses its tools to achieve that. Firstly, the market needs researching to acquire information with helping management team to make best decisions on (marketing mix): which product to make or modify; what type of communication with customers to choose in order to give them the most clarified view on the product (promotion, exhibition, advertising, personal selling, sponsorship); price research to better establish the price of product or service in the market place; corporate plan to better allocate duties and responsibilities through single company units; distribution research to effectively monitor different types of distribution channels and detect any regional variation; Secondly, from the total market of product or service is being broken into distinct subgroups or segments. Each segment may conceivably represent a distinct target market to be reached with a distinct marketing mix (Product, Price, Promotion, Place). (Lancaster and Reynolds 1995) How does marketing communication build and maintain strong brand? The challenge for a lot of companies nowadays is to adapt their traditional functions and operations to the new world. They have to integrate marketing. Today, it is important to build a relationship with the customers. This is the key to finding, developing and having loyal customers, so marketing communication has got an important role. Global organisations have to organize around customers and prospects. They do not only have to organize their operations and activities around products and services. Customers have more influence than ever before. They have access to more products, channels to buy and they have more sources of information. Companies have to communicate about their products or services because of the competition. Brands have to be unique and be different to the others to maintain a competitive advantage over the increasing competition. It is important to inform people about the new products, the change of them, the politics of the company. Examples of successful marketing oriented firms and products Nokia is winning the phone war. The company started its business near Nokia River in Finland in 1865 as a timber business. It was for decades a solid, industrial company, selling even until the 1970s products ranging from toilet paper to rubber boots. It bought into the telephones business some 30 years ago to gain a slice of the promising technology markets, and follow the then fashionable trend for diversification. A decade later, after Ericsson installed a cellular network, Nokia, as an expert in radio telephones, stepped in to provide handsets. And when the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s deprived Nokias traditional operations of important customers, the firm looked to its promising mobile phone unit for redemption. The strategy worked. In 1998, Nokia overtook Motorola to become the worlds biggest manufacturer of mobile phones and could be reasonably described as the Abba of Finland, accounting for one fifth of the countrys exports. (BBC.co.uk 2001) What made Nokia to had its 35% market share in 2001 is that they develop and manufacture their phones with user friendly simplicity, keeping the design on the top trendy fashions. For its awards winning products all over the business world is also responsible great knowledge how to use the marketing tools. These are Pull versus Push Strategies- by increasing its brand loyalty in past few years, Nokia has become more of a pull brand. Customers have started going to Nokia showrooms and asking for latest handsets. Nokias communication strategy is planned as the sole activity of media-mix, structured by offline, online and below the line programs. Nokias marketing plan is mainly based on two essential elements: the rank of products and the needs of customers, belonging to the same category. (Nitin Kochhar, 2006) In summary Nokia with its management decisions is now successfully providing market with third generation mobile phones, not forgetting to intensively develop and implement new technologies. That makes firm to keep their customers satisfied at all times. Unilever was arguably the worlds first packaged goods manufacturer, and is still one of its biggest companies. Meeting the everyday needs of people everywhere is how the group describes itself. It is the world number 1 in personal wash, prestige fragrances and deodorants, with brands including Dove, Omo and Axe/Lynx. Following a series of high-profile acquisitions, including US-based Bestfoods, Unilevers foods business is the worlds third largest after Nestle and Kraft. It is a global leader in culinary foods, ice cream, margarine and tea-based beverages. Brands include Knorr, Lipton and Magnum. Vitality is at the heart of Unilever. Our mission is to meet everyday needs for nutrition, home hygiene and personal care with brands that help people feel good, look good and get more out of life. And every day, around the world, 150 million people in over 150 countries choose our products for the vitality benefits they bring. (www.unilever.co.uk 2006) Dove is one of the fastest-growing products on the market. Silvia Lagnado, group vice-president at London-based Unilever: Unilever is a strongly marketing-oriented company. When I ran the Dove brand for Unilever, we developed a vision that had to do with helping women feel beautiful. Core to our vision was widening the definition of feminine beauty and challenging stereotypes about what beauty looks like. We wanted to position the Dove brand as a way to help women feel greater self-esteem and appreciate the diversity of beauty. We spent a lot of time and effort on research and on talking with sociologists about girls and womens body image. (www.marketingprofs.com 2006) Packard Bell For over a decade Packard Bell has been striving to bring the advantages of technology to life for its millions of customers worldwide. Packard Bell pioneered the use of the PC in the home, taking an unfriendly but useful office tool and turning it into a friendly, indispensable feature of todays modern home. Today it is bringing its experience to bear on the home electronics market, and setting precedents in the process. Today Packard Bell is number three in the European PC consumer market (all form factors) and in the top three in the regions main markets, including the UK, France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and Belgium. Packard Bells business model is built on optimising each step of the value chain. Its closeness to the market space enables it to anticipate customer needs, design appealing products, manage complexity and integrate services and products. Its supply chain and manufacturing base means Packard Bells can bring the right products to market quickly at the right price. The success of the Packard Bell brand has always depended on their ability to stay in tune and in touch with their customers, its unique relationship with Europes leading retailers makes it possible for customers to buy a trusted brand conveniently from a store they trust. (www.packardbell.com 2006) Example of unsuccessful marketing oriented company British Gas has around 11m gas customers and 6m electricity customers and is the largest domestic energy supplier in the UK. The Academy of Customer Excellence was created in 2004 to bring together each of our site based customer service training teams into one. Customer service is a key differentiator within the competitive market place that we are a part of and this new academy is helping us to perform in this environment by supporting our drive to put the customer at the heart of everything we do. ( www.britishgasnews.co.uk 2006) British Gas generates more complaints from householders than all the other domestic suppliers put together, according to new figures. Energywatch received more than 15,400 complaints about British Gas in the six months to September! That figure has more than doubled compared to the same time last year, the gas and electricity watchdog said. By contrast, energywatch received fewer customer complaints about the five other major domestic energy suppliers over the same period. Inaccurate billing is the biggest problem for British Gas customers, energywatch said. A lack of response to customer enquiries was another source of complaints from British Gas customers. Energywatch has contacted the energy regulator Ofgem outlining its concerns about British Gas. (www.thisislondon.co.uk 2006) Some opinions people say about British Gas customer service that it has rude staff- very unhelpful, unreliable, give false information as do not really know what to say, untrained, do not communicate with each other. It is lower than incompetent, it is dishonest and does not care one bit about its customers. In conclusion, no company that treats its customers this badly should be in business. Even my family and I have a bad experience with this firm. Once we moved to our new house and rang them up for arranging delivery of gas meter card (top-up card) they left us without any answer for four weeks. After four weeks waiting for delivery I rang them up once again to ask when was my card sent and they did not know what I was talking about! Same day I switched my energy supplier to one of their competing company. Conclusion Todays world of business is very differentiated by the meaning of its markets and customers. Nevertheless, every consumer expects highest quality products and services, designed and delivered every time it is demanded by him. If there is company not realizing this simple need, because non-marketing orientation, there will be dozens more other firms instantly competing to cover its place on the market. Future of innovation and well-being of companies is in hands of their exacting customers.

Biography of Than Shwe, Burmese Dictator

Biography of Than Shwe, Burmese Dictator Than Shwe (born February 2, 1933) is a Burmese politician who ruled the country as a military dictator from 1992 to 2011. He was known for being a secretive, vindictive commander who showed no qualms about having dissidents, journalists, and even Buddhist monks beaten, jailed, tortured, and executed. Despite his absolute power, Than Shwe was so reclusive that most Burmese people never even heard his voice. Smuggled video footage of the sumptuous wedding thrown for the generals daughter sparked outrage across the country, as it provided a glimpse of the lifestyle of the very rich. Than Shwes regime was so brutal and corrupt that he is considered one of Asias worst dictators. Fast Facts: Than Shwe Known For: Than Shwe was the military dictator of Burma from 1992 to 2011.Born: February 2, 1933 in Kyaukse,  British BurmaSpouse: Kyaing KyaingChildren: 8 Early Life Very little is known about the early life of secretive general Than Shwe. He was born on February 2, 1933, in Kyuakse, in the Mandalay Division of Burma. At the time of Than Shwes birth, Burma was still a British colony. Few details of Than Shwes education have emerged, though some sources report that he attended public elementary school before dropping out of high school. Early Career Than Shwes first government job after leaving school was as a mail delivery clerk. He worked for the post office in Meiktila, a city in central Burma. Sometime between 1948 and 1953, the young Than Shwe enlisted in the Burmese colonial army, where he was assigned to the psychological warfare unit. He participated in the governments ruthless counterinsurgency campaign against ethnic-Karen guerrillas in eastern Burma. This experience resulted in Shwes several-year-long commitment to a psychiatric hospital for post-traumatic stress disorder. Nonetheless, Shwe was known as a merciless fighter; his no-holds-barred style brought a promotion to the rank of captain in 1960. He was promoted to major in 1969, and in 1971 he graduated from a military training program at the Frunze Academy  in the Soviet Union. Entry into National Politics Captain Than Shwe helped General Ne Win seize power in the 1962 coup that ended Burmas brief post-independence experience with democracy. He was rewarded with a steady series of promotions, rising to the rank of colonel by 1978. In 1983, Shwe took military command of the Southwest Region/Irrawaddy Delta near Rangoon. This posting close to the capital was to aid him enormously in his quest for higher office. Ascent to Power In 1985, Shwe was promoted to brigadier general and given the twin posts of Vice Chief of Army Staff and Deputy Minister of Defense. The following year, he was promoted again to major general and given a seat on the Burma Socialist Partys Central Executive Committee. The junta crushed a pro-democracy movement in 1988, leaving 3,000 protestors dead. Burmese ruler Ne Win was ousted after the insurrection. Saw Muang took control, and Than Shwe moved into a high cabinet position- according to one writer, because of his ability to bore everyone else into submission. Following the abortive elections of 1990, Than Shwe replaced Saw Maung as head of state in 1992. Supreme Leader Initially, Than Shwe was seen as a more moderate-style military dictator than some of his predecessors. He freed some political prisoners and released pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest in the late 1990s. (She won the 1990 presidential election despite being in prison.) Than Shwe also oversaw Burmas 1997 entry into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), signaling an openness to trade and increased market freedom. He also cracked down on some official corruption. However, Than Shwe became a stricter ruler over time. His former mentor, General Ne Win, died under house arrest in 2002. In addition, Than Shwes disastrous economic policies kept Burma one of the poorest countries in the world. Human Rights Abuses Given his early association with the brutal put-downs of the Karen independence and pro-democracy movements, its not surprising that Than Shwe showed little regard for human rights during his tenure as Burmas supreme ruler. Freedom of the press and free speech were nonexistent in Burma under his leadership. The journalist Win Tin, an associate of Aung San Suu Kyis, was imprisoned in 1989. (Aung San herself was also rearrested in 2003, and was under house arrest until late in 2010.) The Burmese junta used systematic rape, torture, executions, and disappearances to control the people and quell dissent. Monk-led protests in September 2007 resulted in a violent crackdown, which left hundreds dead. Personal Life While the Burmese people suffered under Than Shwes rule, Than Shwe and other top leaders enjoyed a very comfortable lifestyle (apart from worries about being deposed). The opulence with which the junta surrounded themselves was seen in a leaked video of the wedding reception of Than Shwes daughter, Thandar, and an army major. The video, showing ropes of diamonds, a solid-gold bridal bed, and huge amounts of champagne, outraged people inside Burma and around the world. It was not all jewels and BMWs for Shwe, though. The general is diabetic, and some experts believe he may be suffering from intestinal cancer. He has spent time in hospitals in Singapore and Thailand. Than Shwe is something of a recluse, however, so this information has not been verified. On March 30, 2011, Than Shwe stepped down as the ruler of Myanmar and retreated further from the public eye. His hand-picked successor, President Thein Sein, has initiated a series of reforms and has opened Myanmar to the international community to a surprising extent since he took office. Dissident leader Aung San Suu Kyi was even allowed to run for a seat in the Congress, which she won on April 1, 2012. Sources Myint-U, Thant. Where China Meets India: Burma and the New Crossroads of Asia. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2012.Rogers, Benedict. Burma: a Nation at the Crossroads. Rider Books, 2015.